Chart of the Week

Winter spot rate slide a seasonal pattern

Chart of the Week: Spot (linehaul) to contract rate spread with spot fuel base at $1.20, Van Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: NTIL.USA, VOTRI.USA

National truckload spot and rejection rates for dry van loads have plummeted over the past week, indicating a rapid loosening of the domestic market. This decline may lead many to question the trucking market’s recovery, but the long-term trend still suggests that 2025 will be a more volatile year.

The National Truckload Index, excluding the...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/winter-spot-rate-slide-a-seasonal-pattern

Slow market tightening apparent in spot-to-contract spread

Chart of the Week: Spot (linehaul) to contract rate spread with spot fuel base at $1.20 – USA SONAR: RATES12.USA

The gap between dry van truckload contract and spot rates (excluding estimated fuel costs comparable to a standard fuel surcharge) has been steadily shrinking the past two and a half years. This near-linear trend is primarily driven by a continuous reduction in capacity paired with slow, yet remarkably consistent, demand growth — so subtle that it has been barely perceptible to market...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/slow-market-tightening-apparent-in-spot-to-contract-spread

Los niveles de inventario sugieren que la demanda no será una preocupación a principios de 2025

Gráfico de la semana: Índice del administrador logístico: niveles de inventario SONAR: LMI.INVL El índice del gerente de logística (LMI) que mide los niveles de inventario fue 50 en diciembre, lo que indica que los inventarios totales se mantuvieron esencialmente estables en comparación con noviembre. Esto sugiere que las empresas pronosticaron con precisión la demanda […]

Esta entrada Los niveles de inventario sugieren que la demanda no será una preocupación a principios de 2025 Aparece primero...

https://fullavantenews.com/los-niveles-de-inventario-sugieren-que-la-demanda-no-sera-una-preocupacion-a-principios-de-2025/?lang=es

Inventory levels suggest demand will not be a concern in early 2025

Chart of the Week: Logitsics Manager’s Index – Inventory Levels SONAR: LMI.INVL

The Logistics Manager’s Index (LMI) component measuring inventory levels was 50 in December, indicating that total inventories were essentially flat compared to November. This suggests that companies accurately forecasted demand for the holiday season. However, a closer look reveals a stark divergence between upstream and downstream inventory levels, suggesting significant freight movement opportunities in early 2025.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/inventory-levels-suggest-demand-will-not-be-a-concern-in-early-2025

Winter weather has been more disruptive to transportation than hurricanes

Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Reject Index, National Truckload Index (linehaul only) – USA SONAR: OTRI.USA, NTIL.USA

National tender rejection rates (OTRI) and truckload spot rates (NTIL) have for the second year in a row received a boost from winter weather in mid-January. Winter weather has been far more disruptive to the U.S. freight market than tropical systems over the past several years. Timing and geography play large roles in why. Market context and, thankfully, a lack of long-term...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/winter-weather-has-been-more-disruptive-to-transportation-than-hurricanes

Truckload’s shrinking length of haul

Chart of the Week: Outbound Average Length of Haul – USA SONAR: OALOHA.USA

The average length of haul for a truckload has plummeted in recent months, averaging nearly 8% shorter year over year to start 2025. This is a dramatic shift from what was happening this summer, when the load lengths were averaging 7% longer than the previous year. This may not seem like much to the outside observer, but the implications are quite dramatic from a supply chain management and carrier perspective. 

The data...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckloads-shrinking-length-of-haul

Rejection rates hit highest level since 2022 – but could have been higher 

Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Reject Index, National Truckload Index (linehaul only) – USA SONAR: OTRI.USA, NTIL.USA

The national Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI), which is the rate at which truckload carriers turn down requests from customers to move their freight, pushed over 10% for the first time since April 2022 during the Christmas holiday. Spot rates (excluding the estimated cost of fuel) also peaked nearly 10% higher than in 2023.

While this is further evidence that enough...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/rejection-rates-hit-highest-level-since-2022-but-could-have-been-higher

Why are shippers increasing lead times?

Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Lead Time – USA SONAR: OTLT.USA

Tender lead times last week hit their highest value since SONAR released tender data in 2018, averaging 3.76 days between tender and requested pickup. The previous high of 3.68 was set last year at the same time. Is this a longer-running trend or just a seasonal glitch?

Christmas is typically the seasonal peak of the Outbound Tender Lead Time (OTLT) index. Lead times increase leading into major national holidays as transportation...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-are-shippers-increasing-lead-times

Will the maritime momentum continue in 2025?

Chart of the Week: Inbound Ocean TEUs Index, Customs TEUs Index – USA SONAR: IOTI.USA, CSTEU.USA

U.S. container import demand is up more than 20% over where it was two years ago, according to U.S. customs and SONAR’s bookings data. While many expected steady increases in container volumes in 2023, the strong growth in 2024 was not on as many people’s bingo cards. What should we expect in 2025?

Import demand cratered in late 2022 thanks in large part to the inventory glut created by the...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/will-the-maritime-momentum-continue-in-2025

Rising rejection rates amid demand drop reveal truckload capacity exodus

Chart of the Week: Contract Load Accepted Volume Index, Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: CLAV.USA, OTRI.USA

Carriers are accepting the same load volumes that they were in April 2023, near the theoretical floor of the freight market’s recent recessionary period. Rejection rates (the rate at which carriers turn down load coverage requests from contracted shippers) are more than double what they were at the time. This is further evidence that a significant amount of supply has left and is...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/rising-rejection-rates-amid-demand-drop-reveal-truckload-capacity-exodus

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