Market Watch

Recent US sanctions against Russian entities, blacklisting over 180 vessels, have significantly disrupted the tanker market. This has led to a surge in demand for non-sanctioned tonnage, driving Aframax tanker freight rates for the Kozmino-to-China route to a record high of $7 million on January 21st, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data, reports S&P Global.

Before the recent geopolitical events, the average freight rate for the route was $560,000....

https://mfame.guru/limited-ship-availability-and-increased-competition-drive-aframax-freight-rates/

• Oil prices fell as traders awaited policy clarity from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
• Brent crude dropped by 1.05% to $79.94, and WTI crude declined by 1.07% to $77.05.
• Market uncertainty stems from potential policy shifts, including lifting LNG export moratoriums and addressing the Russia-Ukraine war.
• Recent sanctions on Russian oil and tankers tightened supply but could see adjustments under the new administration.
• A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas contributed to stabilizing prices.

Oi...

https://mfame.guru/oil-prices-fall-amid-policy-uncertainty/

The Supramax market in the Continent and Baltic Sea regions experienced a weak trading week, with rates declining due to limited market activity, reports S&P Global. 

The dry bulk market experienced a sluggish week with low activity and weak sentiment. Despite strong fundamentals, inquiries remained low, reflecting a cautious market outlook.

A charterer described the sentiment as “clearly weak and negative,” citing tonnage oversupply in the region as a contributing factor.

The lack of...

https://mfame.guru/limited-activity-and-weak-demand-weigh-on-supramax-market/

• Q4 2024 VLCC freight rates on the WAF-Far East route fell to a 14-month low due to weak Chinese demand, OPEC+ production cuts, and oversupply in key loading zones.
• The WAF-UKC route saw a volatile Q4, ending at a 16-month low but rebounding slightly due to increased cargo demand and environmental regulations expected to push rates higher in 2025.
• US sanctions on the dark fleet and rising EU ETS costs are expected to tighten tonnage supply.

The fourth quarter of 2024 marked a challenging...

https://mfame.guru/vlcc-and-suezmax-markets-struggle-amid-weak-q4-demand/

• Atlantic Supramax spot rates declined in Q4 2024, with the index peaking at $18,888/d in October and falling to $13,962/d in December.
• Increased tonnage availability constrained freight rates despite strong regional demand for agribulk and minor bulk exports.
• US Gulf Coast agribulk exports to the Far East grew, offsetting a 31% decline in coal shipments.
• South Atlantic grains saw trans-Atlantic volumes rise 39% year-over-year, while fronthaul volumes dropped 36%.

The Atlantic Supramax dry bulk...

https://mfame.guru/atlantic-supramax-market-shows-mixed-trends-amid-fundamentals/

• Averaged $24,964/day in 2024, up 6% y-o-y and 30% above the ten-year trend.
• Container freight rates rose by 149%, bulk carriers (Capesize) earnings surged by 76%, and offshore wind day rates increased by 30%.
• Seaborne trade volumes grew 2.4% to 12.6 billion tons, with ton miles increasing by 6.2%, marking the highest shipping demand growth in 15 years.
• Global fleet grew by 3.4% to 2.4 billion DWT, with 49% of newbuilds being alternative-fueled vessels, predominantly LNG-powered.
• Red Sea...

https://mfame.guru/clarksea-index-2024-shipping-market-review/

The crude tanker market is poised for an intriguing year in 2025, with key trends favouring larger vessels like VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) over mid-size tankers such as Suezmaxes and Aframaxes.

1. Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainties
   • Despite uncertainties, crude tanker owners can expect attractive earnings in 2025.
   • Slow fleet growth and increased long-haul crude trade will maintain high tonnage utilization, particularly benefiting VLCCs.
2. Impact of Refinery Activity...

https://mfame.guru/crude-tanker-market-outlook-for-2025/