The Stockout

Trade War Command Center quantifies import turmoil

‘Air pocket’ makes its way to port and intermodal volume

SONAR Trade War Command Center

In April, numerous U.S. ports set records for import volume. The SONAR Trade War Command Center application shows expected steep month-over-month declines in import volumes based on a 14-day moving average of bookings by date of departure. Most notably, volume headed for the Port of Long Beach is down 36%. That port has the most relative exposure to China, which makes up more than 60% of its import volume. 

(Cha...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trade-war-command-center-quantifies-import-turmoil

Loose Southern California truck market set to get looser

Carriers in port cities brace for ‘air pocket’

The Los Angeles outbound tender rejection rate is only 2% compared to the national tender rejection rate of 5.4%. (Chart: SONAR)

Import volume remained strong in April, as FreightWaves described, with imports up 1.2% from March and 9.1% year over year. Going forward, a major drop-off in imports seems imminent with the questions being severity and duration – and ultimately whether that will lead to stockouts and a need for more expedited surface...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/loose-southern-california-truck-market-set-to-get-looser

Ocean carriers blank sailings as bookings drop

Ocean rejection rates spike as bookings fall

(Chart: SONAR Container Atlas)

Much of the focus the past several days has been on the drop in ocean bookings from China to the U.S., and with good reason. The SONAR Ocean Booking Volume Index from China to the U.S. is now down about 50% year over year, roughly in line with the reported average from ocean carriers and other data sources. A FreightWaves article published last week goes into detail.

(Chart: SONAR Container Atlas)

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https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ocean-carriers-blank-sailings-as-bookings-drop

Freight industry braces for drop in demand

Tender volume takes a dive

Tender volume, a measure of how often shippers request carriers to move loads, has trended down in recent days. (Chart: SONAR)

Up until the past few days, for all the turmoil in trade policy and the financial markets, SONAR had not been showing much change in freight demand, as measured in tender volume. That changed the past few days as the volume of tenders, or electronic requests made by shippers to move loads, declined significantly to no longer track levels of two...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-industry-braces-for-drop-in-demand

Shippers opt for lower-cost, slower services

US intermodal volume outperformed truckload in Q1

(Chart: SONAR)

Loaded containerized intermodal volume (white line) had been trending in line with dry van truckload volume (red) and long-haul truckload volume (yellow), two segments that may be competitive with intermodal, until last year’s fourth quarter. Following the election, nationwide intermodal and truckload volume started departing significantly, likely a result of a pull-forward of imported goods to avoid tariffs. Inland movements of...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shippers-opt-for-lower-cost-slower-services

Flatbed market anything but flat

Tariffs spike flatbed tender rejections

Flatbed tender rejection rates spiked just before North American tariffs took effect in early March, and they spiked again in recent days. (Chart: SONAR)

“What’s happening with flatbed rejection rates?” is the question of the hour from SONAR users. It’s easy to see why – rates shot up to the mid-30s in early March, ahead of North American tariffs (which were delayed for imports that adhered to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). Flated rejection...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/flatbed-market-anything-but-flat

Fear of more tariffs prolongs retail pull-forward

Container ship bookings for US imports still strong, but falloff may hit soon

(Chart: SONAR)

One of the most watched SONAR datasets currently is the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index of U.S. imports (IOTI.USA). It represents a daily index of container bookings on vessels headed to the U.S. at the point of overseas origin, making it a leading indicator of import volume. The index provided an early look at import weakness in mid-2022 (light green line). 

Currently, IOTI shows continued strength in...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fear-of-more-tariffs-prolongs-retail-pull-forward

Is a freight market turn coming in May?

Rejection rates react to tariffs 

Tender rejection rates have remained above levels of the past two years and have also been more sensitive to events, suggesting the freight market is closer to a period of widespread tightness. The bounce in tender rejection rates in March was largely driven by flatbed in response to tariffs. (Chart: SONAR)

Clearly, we are in a period of unusually high economic and freight demand uncertainty, and the stock market pullback the past two weeks could put a damper on...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/is-a-freight-market-turn-coming-in-may

Tariffs in 7 SONAR charts

Tariffs are making Canadian highway capacity scarcer

An index of outbound Canadian tenders, or shippers’ requests to move loads, is shown in white on the right axis. The percent of those tenders that are rejected by carriers is shown in red, on the left axis. (Chart: SONAR)

A week ago, it wasn’t clear whether the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would actually be implemented. But, as the first business days of March approached and it became clearer that the North American tariffs were all systems go,...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tariffs-in-7-sonar-charts

Are low February freight volumes more than seasonality?

Freight volume has been weak this month

Tender volume, which counts how often shippers request that carriers pick up loads, has shown weakness this month. (Chart: SONAR)

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI – above) is the SONAR chart that stands out the most to me this week. It measures the volume of requests from shippers to move loads. It moved 3.8% lower in the past two weeks and is 6.9% below the year-ago level. That 3.8% two-week decline breaks down to a 3.1% decline for the dry van...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/are-low-february-freight-volumes-more-than-seasonality

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