Commodity prices

Edging Toward Recession, Hinting At Recovery

Credits: Canadian Coast Guard/Twitter
  • High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.
  • The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.
  • Both leading timeframes remain negative, although a number of the long leading indicators are edging towards neutrality.
  • Coincident indicators turned neutral this week.
  • Altogether, the indicators are telling us that a recession remains near, with preliminary indications that it may not be...

https://mfame.guru/edging-toward-recession-hinting-at-recovery/

External pressures drag out typical cycle for trailer orders

Vans with rear doors open for insopection ata Ritchies Brothers auction in Houstonn

It may or may not be a fundamental change, but the fall order season for trailer orders isn’t playing out like anything resembling the traditional opening of orderbooks.

Even the data analysts who track the industry landed miles apart on bookings in September.

ACT Research said its preliminary reporting showed net trailer orders were 25,700 units, up about 45% from August but around 10% lower than the same month last year.

FTR Transportation Intelligence pegged September bookings at 12,500, down...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/external-pressures-drag-out-typical-cycle-for-trailer-orders

Here’s why truck manufacturers’ current order discipline won’t last

Two blue and one orange Volvo sleeper cabs on a highway

Order-taking discipline by truck manufacturers continued in June, but don’t expect it to become permanent. OEMs depend on making engines, transmissions and aftermarket parts as well as new trucks..

“No one ever got rewarded for not selling trucks,” Kenny Vieth, ACT Research president, told FreightWaves on Wednesday. “Sales have historically been a battle for market share. If I’m vertically integrated, I’m not just selling a truck. I’m selling an engine and a transmission.”

New truck builds are...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/heres-why-truck-manufacturers-current-order-discipline-wont-last

New trailer orders rebound in March but supply chain still broken

Row of trailers at auction

Preliminary new trailer orders in March hit their highest point since December 2020. But it could be a blip because supply chains are still a mess.

“Nothing has changed in the last several months,” said Brett Olsen, marketing manager for City of Industry, California-based Utility Trailer Manufacturing Co. “We are in the same situation as all manufacturers. Demand is still strong, and there continues to be challenges resulting from the supply chain, labor and inflation.”

ACT Research said net...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/new-trailer-orders-rebound-in-march-but-supply-chain-still-broken

Trucking is a commodity, service is not

Trucks on the road. (Photo: saferoads.org)

I have been around trucking for 42 years – literally my whole life. My grandfather and father began trucking companies. I began to learn about trucking when I was very young, because I grew up in a trucking family. Family dinners and vacations revolved around trucking. It would be unusual for my family to go through a single dinner without something about trucking coming up. 

I learned about economics from my father, but rather than talking about the broader economy, his lessons about the...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trucking-is-a-commodity-service-is-not

April trailer orders slide but blow away near-zero builds a year ago

New trailer orders slid to their lowest in several months in April as manufacturers warned fleets away from booking orders they cannot build for the rest of the year.

Preliminary reports from trailer manufacturers compiled by ACT Research point to 14,400 new trailer orders in April, 52% below March. But reservations soared 3,600% above April 2020 when practically no trailer orders were placed because of pandemic shutdowns.

The year-over-year number is all but meaningless in predicting the...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/april-trailer-orders-slide-but-blow-away-near-zero-builds-a-year-ago

Analysts Predict A Booming Global Economy in 2021

The global economy will accelerate in 2021, though with significant variation around the world, writes Bill Conerly for Forbes.

Rebounds in goods trade

The world will benefit from vaccinations, both directly in fewer illnesses and indirectly as lockdowns and fears subside.

It will take most of 2021 and into 2022 for the full benefits of vaccination to be felt, and maybe even longer in poorer countries, but America’s major trading partners should look good next year.

Improved global GDP growth 

The...

https://mfame.guru/analysts-predict-a-booming-global-economy-in-2021/

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