Crude tankers stuck in ‘rate hell’ but floating-storage pain wanes

crude tankers

“Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil …” begins a psalm that might comfort today’s crude-tanker investors.

Crude tankers have been condemned to an extended stay in “spot-rate hell,” lamented Stifel analyst Ben Nolan in his latest quarterly outlook. He wrote that the sector is only at the “halfway point in the very long road through the Valley of Death.” Nolan quoted Winston’s Churchill’s advice: “If you are going through hell, keep going.”

Clarksons...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/crude-tankers-stuck-in-rate-hell-but-floating-storage-pain-wanes

Q3 stock recap: Ocean shipping’s winners and losers

stock market

You don’t need to know the latest quarterly results to know how shipping stocks are doing. It’s all about the present and future rates, not what happened months ago. And when it comes to rates, container-ship owners are doing much better. Tanker and dry bulk owners are still doing poorly.

Ocean shipping stocks report quarterly results later than many other business segments. In some cases, a shipping company won’t report its prior quarter until nearly the end of the current quarter. Given how...

https://s29755.pcdn.co/news/q3-stock-recap-ocean-shippings-winners-and-losers

Frontline’s disappearing dividend ‘speaks volumes’ on tanker fears

tanker

Frontline (NYSE: FRO) — the last of the big public tanker owners to post earnings — just gave shipping investors more to worry about over the holidays.

First came the surprise decision to pay no dividend. As Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans put it: “No dividend stocking stuffer” for Q3 and probably for Q4 or Q1. Then came talk of a particularly opaque outlook and even whispers of a resurgence in newbuild interest.

‘We decided to keep the cash’

Frontline, which owns both crude and product tankers,...

https://s29755.pcdn.co/news/disappearing-dividend-speaks-volumes-on-tanker-fears

Tanker shipping at risk of rare winter hibernation

tanker

Three months ago, tanker owners hoped for a quick rebound and talked up fleet expansion via consolidation. There’s little talk of growth today. And a growing number of executives and analysts fear the typically strong winter season will be a bust.

Tanker stocks were up Monday on the Moderna vaccine news, just as they were a week before on the Pfizer vaccine news. Yet beyond such sentiment bumps — which Evercore ISI analyst Jon Chappell characterized as “likely a mix of short covering and...

https://s29755.pcdn.co/news/tanker-shipping-at-risk-of-rare-winter-hibernation

How vaccine and Biden victory will impact shipping

vaccine and biden

The stock market soared on Monday in the wake of President-elect Joe Biden’s victory and Pfizer’s vaccine announcement. Both news bombshells will affect ocean shipping — with different consequences for container and tanker shipping.

Worst-case stimulus scenario for containers

Federal stimulus has had an enormous effect on consumer spending power, and consequently, containerized imports. According to analysts at Evercore ISI, the best-case scenario from a stimulus perspective would have been an...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-vaccine-and-biden-victory-will-impact-shipping

Why crude-tanker collapse could be long and painful

crude tanker

Chinese water torture is defined as “a painful process in which cold water is slowly dripped onto the scalp, forehead or face for a prolonged period of time, allegedly making the restrained victim insane.”

Crude-tanker owners and investors may face their own version of this ancient torment. Today’s agonizingly low rates could be just the beginning.

The massive floating storage volumes that built up earlier this year are unloading. But very, very slowly. In aggregate, they’re dripping out....

https://s29755.pcdn.co/news/why-crude-tanker-collapse-could-be-long-and-painful

Tanker market is awash (again) in floating storage chatter

crude tanker

Remember floating storage? It’s back. Or at least, back in the spotlight. Market chatter has refocused on the view that falling oil demand equals higher tanker storage equals fewer ships available for spot deals equals higher spot rates.

Spot rates are definitely rising, albeit off an extremely low base. On Monday, Clarksons Platou Securities put spot rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs; tankers that carry 2 million barrels of crude oil) at $27,900 per day, up 124% week-on-week.

VLCC rates...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tanker-markets-are-awash-again-in-floating-storage-chatter

Supertanker spot rates are crashing down to ‘opex’ levels

crude tanker

If your business earns so little you can still afford to pay staff but not your lenders, that’s bad. If you can’t even pay your staff without losing money, that’s really bad. Rates for larger tankers on some major trade routes just went from bad to really bad.

There are two flavors of “breakeven”: operating-expense (opex) breakeven, which includes the cost of crew, stores, spares, management fees and insurance, and all-in cash breakeven, which also includes debt payments and interest costs.

The...

https://s29755.pcdn.co/news/supertanker-spot-rates-crash-to-opex-levels

Supertanker double-whammy: Less volume, shorter hauls

crude drilling

“The unwinding period is going to be painful. It’s happening,” warned Michael Fogerty, senior vice president of commercial operations of Diamond S Shipping (NYSE: DSSI), during the quarterly call on Thursday. He was referring to the drawdown of crude stocks in Asia that have built up on land and at sea over the past few months.

The Asian drawdown hits very large crude carriers (VLCCs, tankers that carry 2 million barrels of oil) on two fronts. Not only is less crude flowing to Asia, but less is...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supertanker-double-whammy-less-volume-shorter-hauls

Tanker major DHT is back in takeover mode

crude tanker

The quarterly call of DHT Holdings (NYSE: DHT) was easy listening for its investors. Not so for stockholders of DHT’s competitors, which are much more exposed to spot rates.

DHT, unlike almost all other public crude-tanker owners, is heavily shielded from spot downside by time charters. Now, it’s prepping to buy tankers as spot rates slump, ship values fall, and owners without period coverage get hammered.

“We expect the next leg in the market to have attractive investment opportunities,” DHT...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tanker-owner-dht-is-now-in-takeover-mode

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