economics

Viewpoint: Another nail in the consumer spending coffin

New warehouse data from WarehouseQuote reveals more insight into the retail industry’s outlook on the consumer this holiday season. Vacancy rates are up on the East and West coasts and we do not see any rush by retailers to fill the space. This latest data set not only shows the return to just-in-time inventories, but with the added fact of lower holiday orders this year, this information further illustrates the retail sector’s ho-hum expectations of a vibrant holiday spender.

“In 2023,...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/viewpoint-another-nail-in-the-consumer-spending-coffin

From booze to fries, signs of consumer demand weakness multiplying

FreightWaves has written extensively in recent months about the continued profound weakness in U.S. goods demand, which has been reflected in unusually weak truck, rail and corrugated box volumes, among other areas. Indeed, we just reported on continued historically weak box demand earlier this week.

In our coverage of the retail and consumer packaged goods industries, we’ve noted trade-down activity (to cheaper private-label items), increasingly fewer purchases of discretionary items in favor...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/from-booze-to-fries-signs-of-consumer-demand-weakness-multiplying

Shipper sentiment is slipping. Is the freight market turning?

Entering the third quarter of 2023, the freight market is at a crossroads, teetering between tumult and a potential step toward balance. The first half of the year, best characterized by a capacity glut that pushed truckload spot rates underwater, has shown signs of bottoming. Now, the turmoil at major carriers is beginning to make its mark, and freight sentiment is changing.

Yellow (NASDAQ: YELL), the troubled Kansas-based less-than-truckload carrier, is struggling to stay afloat, pressured by...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipper-sentiment-is-sinking-is-the-freight-market-turning

Trade growth to slow in 2023

By Shipping Australia

A global slow-down in economic activity is on the cards, according to the World Trade Organization.

“Trade continues to be a force for resilience in the global economy, but it will remain under pressure from external factors in 2023.This makes it even more important for governments to avoid trade fragmentation and refrain from introducing obstacles to trade. Investing in multilateral cooperation on trade, as WTO members did at our Twelfth Ministerial Conference last June,...

https://www.shippingaustralia.com.au/trade-growth-to-slow-in-2023/

Carriers seeing light at end of tunnel, but is it too soon?

Few in freight appear to have high hopes for profits in the first quarter, but the landscape is at least starting to look a little brighter for carriers, according to the Q1 2023 Freight Sentiment Indexes. The indexes, which FreightWaves Research produces via surveys in the first two weeks of each quarter, combine near-term and longer-term scores to generate a snapshot of business attitudes.

Taken together, the results paint a picture of a troubled freight market that could be starting to find...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/carriers-seeing-light-at-end-of-tunnel-but-is-it-too-soon

When will the spot market bottom out? Soon, survey says

If your business thrives when spot rates are high, there is both good and bad news. The bad news is that those rates haven’t found a floor yet. The good news is that they likely will in the next three to six months, and then start climbing again in the second half of 2023.

At least that’s the most widely shared opinion of the nearly 400 carriers and brokers/3PLs that FreightWaves Research surveyed last week. Asked when spot rates would hit rock bottom in the current cycle, 44.05% answered Q1...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/when-will-the-spot-market-bottom-out

Shippers’ revenge is coming for truckload carriers 

Trucks at docks. (Photo: Shutterstock)

The freight market is a pendulum –  and when it swings, it may be the buyers or sellers of capacity that now have the power in rate negotiations. Ever since the summer of 2020, trucking companies have largely held all of the power in rate negotiations, based on their ability to squeeze their shipper customers for rate premiums. 

If the trucking firms didn’t get a rate increase in a contract rate negotiation, they would simply move the capacity to the spot market to exploit market conditions and...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shippers-revenge-is-coming-for-truckload-carriers

How does the freight market really look right now for owner-operators?

A driver steps up into the cab of a Class 8 tractor.

If you’re an owner-operator, chances are 2021 felt pretty good to you. 

Stimulus money padded consumer pockets, and many companies turned a bit frothy. It was one of the longest stretches of so-called easy money periods in history. If you wanted to move a lot of freight, it’s likely you were able to. And with spot rates reaching historic heights, it’s likelier still that you were paid well for doing so. Sure, fuel costs climbed steadily throughout the year, but that felt manageable. Your...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-does-the-freight-market-really-look-right-now-for-owner-operators

Soaring inflation and crashing rates are sparking trucking’s ‘Great Purge’ 

A truck rolls down the highway. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

The last trucking market crash was in 2019. The current market could end up worse for small truckload fleets.

The freight market crash in 2019 was caused by two factors – a freight slowdown due to tariffs on Chinese imports and a surge of new fleets flooding the market, even as rates continued to fall. 

Until 2019, we had never seen that many new fleets enter the market, especially during a market downturn. During 2019 an average of 7,200 fleets entered the market per month compared to an average...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckings-market-crash-severe-amid-inflation

Air cargo market heads toward 2nd best year despite softening

An airport tug pulls a large cargo pallet in front of an American Airlines jet.

Air cargo business is slowing amid global macroeconomic pressures but 2022 is still shaping up as one of the industry’s strongest years ever with cargo revenues nearly double those before the pandemic, the International Air Transport Association said Monday. The cargo forecast was part of an upgraded outlook showing that the industry is inching closer to profitability in 2023 as passenger demand finally kicks into full gear.

The largest airline trade association said it expects cargo to continue...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/air-cargo-market-heads-toward-2nd-best-year-despite-softening

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