The Fed’s supply chain pressure gauge just went negative

Fed GSCPI supply chain index

Back in January 2022, when the world was in the throes of a supply chain crisis, economists at the New York Federal Reserve unveiled a new barometer to measure the inflation fallout, called the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI).

The GSCPI, designed to “capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators,” measures standard deviations from the historical mean. It peaked at 4.31 standard deviations in December 2021. In trading parlance, that’s a four-sigma or once-in-a-century...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/federal-reserve-supply-chain-pressure-gauge-just-went-negative

Coast is (almost) clear as port congestion fades even further

What a difference a year makes. At this time in 2022, over 100 container ships were stuck waiting off the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, with around 150 off all North American ports combined. Now, there are almost no ships waiting in Pacific waters and increasingly few off the East and Gulf coasts.

Ship-position data showed just 30 container vessels off North American ports Friday morning. All remaining queues are down to single digits per port.

Factory closures for Asia’s Lunar...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/coast-is-almost-clear-as-port-congestion-fades-even-further

Chance that container ship arrives on time is still a coin toss

chart showing container service reliability

A year ago, fear was a big driver of the supply chain crunch: fear that goods wouldn’t arrive on time, stoked by headlines warning that shipping delays could “cancel Christmas.” It became a vicious cycle. The threat of delays caused importers to max out orders and bring them forward, causing more delays.

Importers ordered too much in late 2021, and to avoid another holiday scramble, they shipped in seasonal goods early in 2022. This front-loading alleviated pressure on the supply chain in the...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/chance-that-container-ship-arrives-on-time-still-a-coin-toss

Long Beach container backlog crosses red line as delays mount

photo of containers at the port of Long Beach

The number of container ships waiting off Los Angeles and Long Beach is well off its highs, but the pileup of import containers waiting on Southern California terminal yards is rapidly reapproaching its peak.

Long Beach just crossed a red line. The number of import containers sitting on Long Beach terminals for nine days or more is now higher than it was on Oct. 28, 2021, the date the port first began counting these boxes as part of a plan to reduce them.

Gains from ‘key’ fee plan largely gone

Back...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/long-beach-container-backlog-crosses-red-line-as-delays-mount

Shanghai lockdown is not causing global supply chain chaos (yet)

Shanghai lockdown

First came China’s Wuhan lockdown in February 2020. Then came the closing of Yantian in Shenzhen, the world’s fourth-largest port, in June 2021. Now, Shanghai — site of the world’s largest port — is in extended lockdown. The first two events had extreme effects on container shipping to the U.S. But Shanghai is no Wuhan or Yantian, at least not yet.

Shanghai export box wait times

One fear is that China’s strict COVID policy will lead to a pileup of containers at Shanghai’s port. The big difference...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shanghai-lockdown-is-not-causing-global-supply-chain-chaos-yet

East Coast ports about to get slammed by a lot more ships

container shipping

There were 63 container ships waiting off East and Gulf Coast ports on Friday morning, plus another eight off the transshipment hub in Freeport, Bahamas — and it looks like it’s about to get worse.

The number of liner services calling in East Coast ports from Asia will surge to a new record high in the coming months as more cargo is diverted away from the Pacific gateway in Los Angeles/Long Beach.

The potential result: escalating ship queues along the East Coast and deteriorating service for...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/east-coast-ports-about-to-get-slammed-by-a-lot-more-ships

What China COVID spike, massive lockdowns mean to shipping

china covid shipping

COVID is not done with shipping yet. China is suffering its worst outbreak since the pandemic began. Shenzhen (population: 17.5 million) went into lockdown Sunday, closing factories. Cases have surged in Shanghai, where new restrictions are in place.  

Shanghai is the site of the world’s largest port, Shenzhen the third largest. When an outbreak hit the Yantian terminal in Shenzhen last June, twice as many vessels were delayed as in the Ever Given accident in the Suez Canal.

How the new outbreak...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/what-chinas-covid-spike-massive-lockdowns-mean-to-shipping

February another record-busting month for SC Ports

February was the 12th straight month that South Carolina ports hit a monthly record for container volumes.

Last month, SC Ports handled 230,420 twenty-foot equivalent units at the Wando Welch, North Charleston and Hugh K. Leatherman terminals at the Port of Charleston, which is 26% higher than February 2021.

Since the start of SC Ports’ 2022 fiscal year on July 1, 2021, container volumes are up 16% compared with the same period in fiscal year 2021, with volumes totaling more than 1.87 million...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/february-another-record-busting-month-for-sc-ports

Shipping mints even more money as supply chain squeeze drags on

shipping

Great news for ocean carriers like Zim is generally ominous news for U.S. importers paying painfully high freight bills — and there was a bounty of great news for Zim on Wednesday.

The shipping liner operator, which specializes in the trans-Pacific lane, posted net income of $1.71 billion for Q4 2021. Earnings per share were $14.17, handily beating the consensus forecast of $13.19.

Full-year adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization came in at $6.6 billion, topping...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shipping-mints-even-more-money-as-supply-chain-squeeze-drags-on

Supply chain whack-a-mole: West Coast eases, East Coast worsens

container shipping

The good news on U.S. port congestion: The number of container ships waiting for berths in Los Angeles/Long Beach has continued to decline, falling to 66 on Wednesday — as low as it was back in mid-September.

The bad news: Other indicators point to ongoing challenges for West Coast ports and a potential resurgence in queue numbers in March, April and May. Meanwhile, the number of ships waiting offshore of East and Gulf Coast ports is hitting new highs, and sailing schedules show that these ports...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/supply-chain-whack-a-mole-west-coast-eases-east-coast-worsens

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