The extraordinary length of the trucking downturn is best explained by a government program that flooded small carriers with tens of billions of dollars of cheap, long-dated credit.
The persistence of the post-COVID trucking capacity overhand has perplexed industry observers for more than a year now. After the pandemic demand boom faded, there were too many trucks and not enough freight, and rates fell through the floor, bottoming around $1.49 per mile, exclusive of fuel, in May 2023.
Trucking...