Comment

US midterms fulfil market expectations, Discussion with Mark Sobel on US economy policy

Commentary: US midterms fulfil market expectations

By Elliot Hentov in London

The results of the 6 November US midterm elections illustrate how President Donald Trump remains bound to historical norms around US voter preferences for shared power. That is the central insight from this result: the loss of total Republican control of Congress should somewhat constrain Trump’s potential for erratic behaviour. The initial market reaction has been positive, as the outcome fulfilled expectations. While...

http://www.allaboutshipping.co.uk/2018/11/09/us-midterms-fulfil-market-expectations-discussion-with-mark-sobel-on-us-economy-policy/

The BDI@1,231 …medieval figures that hurt

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) is now 1,016 points below the figure as of the end of December 2013 when it stood at 2,247 points. Geopolitics with all types of wars dangerously spreading; IBIA’s 2018 Convention finale more than a cause to celebrate! John Faraclas daily briefing:

The BDI by losing 73 points lost the 1,300 point threshold and since last Monday the 5th of November when our respective daily recap was titled:  proves all our worries and the dangerous volatile uncertainty.

The...

http://www.allaboutshipping.co.uk/2018/11/08/the-bdi1231-medieval-figures-that-hurt/

Market Insight – DHL Global Forwarding back with a bang: could an IPO be its next move?

(Note for the reader: DGF in this story refers to both freight and forwarding activities, which report separately but are under the same division)
Trying to predict the unpredictable is a fools’ mission, but some signs do not pass unnoticed – and in the case of DHL Global Forwarding, that’s 237m signs.
In less than 16 months, under the stewardship of ex-Kuehne + Nagel air freight head Tim Scharwath, the tide has …

The post Market Insight – DHL Global Forwarding back with a bang: could an IPO be...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/market-insight-dhl-global-forwarding-back-bang-ipo-next-move/

China cooling spreads beyond borders, Cyber resilience and financial stability

Commentary: China cooling spreads beyond borders

By Steve Hanke in Baltimore

The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled by more than 9% in October, and has shed 25% for the year. To determine the probability of a cool down, one must look at the money supply, broadly measured. The relationship between the growth rate of the money supply and nominal GDP is unambiguous and overwhelming. It is unsurprising that Chinese stock markets have been rattled. Moreover, as China has for some time been the biggest...

http://www.allaboutshipping.co.uk/2018/11/07/china-cooling-spreads-beyond-borders-cyber-resilience-and-financial-stability/

Analysis: days of reckoning loom for AP Møller Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd

Let me begin today’s column with some special praise for five of my industry sources, whom I’ve nicknamed Mr Big, an industry executive (North America); T Island, supply chain specialist (APAC); Oasis, industry finance veteran (Europe); The Doctor, a freight forwarding innovator (North America); and Sunshine (Europe), a freight forwarding veteran.
With 127 years’ market experience between them, what they also have in common is that, little by little and from very different …

The post Analysis:...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/analysis-days-reckoning-loom-ap-moller-maersk-hapag-lloyd/

US faces twin deficit crisis, Roundtable with Donald Kohn

Commentary: US faces twin deficit crisis

By Desmond Lachman in Washington

The US trade deficit has widened steadily over the past two years, reaching a record high of almost $1tn annually. As a result of Washington’s expansive budget policy at this late stage in the economic cycle, analysts expect that over the next two years the US budget deficit will rise to a peace-time high of more than $1tn. This makes it probable that the US will face a twin deficit problem – an outsized budget deficit and...

http://www.allaboutshipping.co.uk/2018/11/05/us-faces-twin-deficit-crisis-roundtable-with-donald-kohn/

Analysis: K+N, Panalpina & DSV – still street-smart and gutsy?

Judging by the interims of Kuehne Nagel, Panalpina and DSV released this month, the biggest loser in the third quarter was the ocean freight trade.
Seasonality is not the culprit, rather we can blame supply chain affairs that give headaches to all the major freight forwarders, which are squeezed between budget-cautious shippers and constrained carriers.
Not looking good
Falling freight forwarding yields in ocean are symptomatic of strained relationships along the value chain, …

The post Analysis:...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/analysis-kn-panalpina-dsv-still-street-smart-gutsy/

Market Insight: DSV vs CMA CGM & CEVA – a bidding war in the making

DSV’s last word on CEVA Logistics was on Tuesday, before CMA CGM’s surprising offer emerged today, when the Danish logistics firm indicated it had given up in its pursuit.
“Based on the unwillingness of the board of directors of CEVA to engage directly with DSV at the price per share offered, we have decided not to pursue an acquisition of CEVA.”
But today came another twist, and the mating game became a minefield …

The post Market Insight: DSV vs CMA CGM & CEVA – a bidding war in the making...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/market-insight-dsv-vs-cma-cgm-ceva-bidding-war-making/

Analysis: this week, an interims spectacular, starring UPS, Panalpina and DSV

Are three stars – UPS, Panalpina and DSV – about to shine in the transportation and logistics galaxy?
Last Friday served a timely reminder of how badly heightened volatility and specific sector news – Kuehne + Nagel poorly opened a pivotal earnings season – can suddenly destroy value, impacting the shareholders of major public T&L operators whose fortunes are intimately tied to reduced global growth forecasts, among other things, in a …

The post Analysis: this week, an interims spectacular,...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/analysis-week-interims-spectacular-starring-ups-panalpina-dsv/

Market Insight: CEVA convinced it is on the right course, but DSV may call back

A call with a London-based financial broker closely monitoring the DSV/CEVA situation strengthened my conviction that there is a near-zero chance DSV will improve its initial bid, CHF27.75 a share, immediately rejected by the CEVA Logistics board last week.
A number of my freight forwarding sources believe DSV will return with an improved offer, and quickly; but institutional investors and the brokers working on their behalf believe otherwise.
One told me DSV would …

The post Market Insight:...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/market-insight-ceva-convinced-right-course-dsv-may-call-back/

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