Despite being the cause of endless speculation and news coverage, midterm elections are one of the most predictable events in American politics. This holds particularly true in the House of Representatives, where the president’s party has lost seats in 17 of the last 19 midterm elections.
Most of the losses in the House are by double digits, with some climbing especially high, like the 54 seats lost in 1994 and the 63 seats in 2010. The two years with gains by the president’s party were...
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/viewpoint-predicting-midterms-with-historical-data