FreightWaves Ocean

Maersk: Container volumes could fall 25%

container ship

Container volumes will drop sharply in the second quarter but the industry is in better position to manage the coronavirus crisis than previous downturns, according to Soren Skou, chief executive officer of A.P. Moller-Maersk (APM, Copenhagen: MAERSK-B), the owner of the world’s largest container line.

On Wednesday morning, APM reported net income of $209 million for the first quarter of 2020 compared to a net loss of $656 million in the same period last year, with ocean shipping revenues up 3%...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/maersk-container-volumes-could-fall-25

Will ocean carriers scale back sailing cancellations?

container terminal

Container-liner schedules are about to provide a telling clue on U.S. cargo demand.

Arrival schedules for May and June are set. U.S. ports will see double-digit declines in inbound capacity. Whether carriers will keep “blanking” (canceling) sailings on the same scale into the third quarter remains unknown, but not for much longer.

If mass cancellations extend into July at elevated May-June levels, it means that carriers are not receiving enough bookings from shippers, implying a weak recovery...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/will-ocean-carriers-scale-back-sailing-cancellations

Capesize shipping rates sink 21% in a single day

bulk ship

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose to fame in the mid-2000s as a leading indicator of the global economy. If the BDI went up, industrial production was set to increase; if it went down, vice versa.

The BDI lost its luster as a macro bellwether during the decade after the financial crisis, as the index became overwhelmingly driven by shipping oversupply, not cargo demand.

Is it time once again to view the BDI as a signal of global industrial demand? If so, it’s looking scary.

Capesize rates crash

There...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/capesize-shipping-rates-sink-21-in-a-single-day

Tanker veteran warns on rates: The storm is coming

tanker ship

Diamond S Shipping (NYSE: DSSI) capped a blockbuster run of tanker earnings with an announcement of huge profits and a record quarter, just like the other four listed owners reporting this week.

But the Diamond S conference call on Friday was not a predictable sequel to calls with analysts the days before. The mood was less uplifting and self-serving, more foreboding and straight-shooting.

Diamond S CEO Craig Stevenson and his CFO Kevin Kilcullen did not mince words about the trouble they see...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tanker-veteran-warns-on-rates-the-storm-is-coming

Floating storage is far from dead in the water

Europeans and Americans are getting back to work. There are more cars on the roads. Saudi Arabia and other oil producers are hitting the brakes on output. The price of crude oil has doubled. All of which might give the impression that the much-ballyhooed floating-storage tanker trade is dead in the water.

Absolutely not true, according to executives of Euronav (NYSE: EURN) and International Seaways (NYSE: INSW), the latest in a parade of tanker owners reporting blockbuster earnings this week.

Eur...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/floating-storage-is-far-from-dead-in-the-water

Inside the ‘mind-blowing,’ ‘crazy,’ ‘insane,’ ‘ridiculous’ tanker sell-off

crude tanker

The plot thickens.

On Wednesday, U.S.-listed tanker stocks reported record-high results, executives confirmed strengthening rates on conference calls, the broader stock market was relatively stable (at least until the last hour), the price of crude oil declined … and yet, stocks of tanker owners fell sharply in heavy trading.

It was “the craziest price action I’ve seen in my nine years covering the space,” Jefferies shipping analyst Randy Giveans told FreightWaves.

There have been plenty of bad...

https://s29755.pcdn.co/news/inside-the-mind-blowing-crazy-insane-ridiculous-tanker-sell-off

Investors dump tanker stocks just as tanker profits soar

product tanker

Imagine you’re the CEO of a company ringing the opening bell of the New York Stock Exchange. You show up at the corner of Wall Street and Broad full of excitement and anticipation on the morning of the big event. Then the entire U.S. market crashes the moment trading begins and no one pays any attention to you.

Public tanker company executives can relate.

The top names in the space are issuing earnings releases in rapid fire this week, with Ardmore Shipping (NYSE: ASC) the first out of the gate...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/investors-dump-tanker-stocks-just-as-tanker-profits-soar

Barge giant Kirby: signs of life but too soon to call bottom

tank barge

It’s a strange time for public reporting. Companies are posting results for a period – January to March – that’s largely irrelevant because it pre-dated peak COVID-19 fallout.

The value of this round of quarterly reporting is in commentary on current conditions, particularly from bigger public players who can provide front-line insights on the U.S. economy.

One of those bigger players is Kirby Corporation (NYSE: KEX), the largest owner of inland tank barges in America and by far the largest...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/barge-giant-kirby-signs-of-life-but-too-soon-to-call-bottom

How canceled sailings will impact US ports – and when

container ship

Container lines have “blanked” (canceled) an unprecedented number of sailings to bring capacity in line with coronavirus-stricken cargo demand.

Blank-sailings data is a key leading indicator for U.S. ports, cargo shippers, truckers and railways. A container ship that doesn’t depart from Asia equates to a container ship that doesn’t arrive on the U.S. West Coast two to three weeks later, or on the East Coast four to five weeks later.

What matters to American businesses is U.S. port arrivals, not...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-canceled-sailings-will-impact-us-ports-and-when

Second-half container relief after second-quarter disaster?

container port

The coronavirus is a tough nut to crack for economic forecasters, and by extension, container-shipping forecasters. The rebound hinges on at least two colossal unknowns: the future rate of infections and how consumer behavior evolves.

The consensus, which may turn out to be wishful thinking, is that infections will slow and consumers will tentatively get back to their consumption in the second half. If so, container volumes would climb off their lows.

The new container-shipping forecast of...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/second-half-container-relief-after-second-quarter-disaster

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