INFLATION

Truckload volumes and bond yields say recession, not inflation, the bigger risk

The U.S. economy finds itself at a crossroads following President Donald Trump’s dramatic announcement of sweeping new tariffs on imports. While some economists fear the tariffs could stoke inflation, key economic indicators – including bond yields and truckload volumes – are flashing warning signs that a recession from suppressed consumer demand and business activity may be the more pressing concern for policymakers and investors alike.

On Wednesday, Trump unveiled what he called “the steepest...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckload-volumes-and-bond-yields-say-recession-not-inflation-the-bigger-risk

Liberation Day triggers panic mode for manufacturers

Despite solid fundamentals, sentiment in the U.S. manufacturing sector has mostly been informed by buzzy anxieties over economic growth.

Take durable goods, for example: After a surprising beat on new orders in January, analysts expected a correction in February. Instead, new orders for durable goods grew 0.9% month over month (m/m) against consensus expectations of a 1% m/m drop, while January’s growth was revised up to 3.3% m/m.

SONAR: U.S. core durable goods orders, in millions USD (white,...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/liberation-day-triggers-panic-mode-for-manufacturers

Bank of England: risks of inflation and interest rate confusion

Sarah Coles
  • On average, in February, people thought the inflation rate was 4.9%. In January it was actually 3%.
  • 41% of people said the interest rates on saving and borrowing had risen over the past 12 months, and only 28% said they had fallen.
  • In reality, the average rate on easy access savings accounts is down from 3.17% to 2.9%, while the average rate on a 1-year fixed rate savings account has dropped from 4.62% to 4.19% (Moneyfacts).
  • 34% of people expect interest rates to rise over the next...

https://allaboutshipping.co.uk/2025/03/14/bank-of-england-risks-of-inflation-and-interest-rate-confusion/

Trump policies make airfreight shippers jittery about downturn

Worries about a slowdown in airfreight shipping to start the year have quickened as President Donald Trump’s policy blitzkrieg begins to impact the global economy, especially small-dollar shipments from China that have fueled air cargo growth for two years. 

The distress is magnified by how quickly conditions have changed from the 12% growth in air cargo demand last year. Air logistics professionals expected market growth to normalize at about 5% year over year once a recovery ran its course,...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trump-policies-make-airfreight-shippers-jittery-about-downturn

Industrial outlook darkens ahead of tariffs

In the run-up to Tuesday’s promised barrage of tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China, the U.S. industrial sector is not looking so hot — a dark omen for domestic freight demand.

Unstable foundations for housing

For one, construction spending took an unexpected hit in January, down 0.2% from December against consensus expectations of stability. Outlays for private residential projects fell 0.4%, despite a 0.6% monthly rise in single-family spending.

SONAR: Total U.S. construction spending, in...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/industrial-outlook-darkens-ahead-of-tariffs

Can the US consumer survive a trade war?

Reading the latest headlines, one might expect the U.S. economy to be barrelling into a recession or even depression. The chaotic uncertainty of President Donald Trump’s trade approach — what his supporters might call “the art of the deal” — has given businesses whiplash and set many markets to panicking.

But should consumers be afraid?

No, probably not. If they were able to keep pace with the incredible inflation of the early pandemic, consumers should be able to weather any storm kicked up by...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/can-the-us-consumer-survive-a-trade-war

¿Puede el consumidor estadounidense sobrevivir a una guerra comercial?

Al leer los últimos titulares, uno podría esperar que la economía estadounidense se acerque a una recesión o incluso depresión. La incertidumbre caótica del enfoque comercial del presidente Donald Trump, lo que sus partidarios podrían llamar «el arte del acuerdo», le ha dado a las empresas un...

https://fullavantenews.com/puede-el-consumidor-estadounidense-sobrevivir-a-una-guerra-comercial/?lang=es

Automakers taken for a spin following tariff announcements

The U.S. automotive industry is bracing for a massive shake-up after President Donald Trump announced a round of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China.

Initially set to take effect on Tuesday, the new measures impose a 25% duty on goods from Canada and Mexico, in addition to raising tariffs on Chinese imports by 10%. The tariffs were justified by Trump as a response to concerns over these countries’ roles in fentanyl trafficking, illegal immigration and trade imbalances.

Following a...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/automakers-taken-for-a-spin-following-tariff-announcements

Energy markets panic over tariffs, but then relax

Energy markets on Monday at least partly shrugged off the potential impact on prices of new U.S. tariffs. 

Most of the tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday, though Trump extended the deadline for Mexico by one month after its president pledged to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border. 

Refiners balk at higher costs

In the immediate aftermath of the announcement, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — a domestic benchmark — crude futures surged by $2.65 per barrel, outpacing...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/energy-markets-panic-over-tariffs-but-then-relax

Truckers don’t need to worry about the economy

In perhaps the least surprising conference over the past several months, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Fed was leaving its target interest rates untouched for now.

SONAR: Effective federal funds rate (white).
To learn more about FreightWaves SONAR, click here.

At last Wednesday’s press conference, Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to make data-driven decisions in accordance with its “dual mandate,” which is to stabilize prices and secure maximum employment. 

One of...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckers-dont-need-to-worry-about-the-economy

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