Market Insight

Supply chain radar: struggling with liquidity

“MSC takes four ships and 49% share of Messina Group”, ran the headline in Splash 24/7 on New Year’s Eve.
In short, MSC is providing short-term liquidity to the parent company, while taking a controlling stake in a holding which holds assets as collateral.
My immediate thought was that such news – almost meaningless, in the bigger scheme of things – was not worth any coverage. Yet two days later it became meaningful, as the European Central …

The post Supply chain radar: struggling with liquidity

https://theloadstar.co.uk/supply-chain-radar-struggling-with-liquidity/

Against the odds: Put UPS and FedEx in your basket

Against the odds comes in two forms: a column, on merit when warranted, and a monthly excel calculator, which is updated around the beginning of each calendar month. It challenges common sell-side wisdom in financial markets that the future often has better events in store than the past. The vast majority of consensus estimates from analysts, often modelled against a company’s guidance, are a case in point.
In a typical bearish fashion, …

The post Against the odds: Put UPS and FedEx in your...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/against-the-odds-new-year-no-change/

Supply chain radar: AP Møller Mærsk’s land of hope and glory?

“Maersk is looking for acquisitions to boost its logistics operations on land as the world’s largest container shipping company tries to broaden its appeal to big shippers of goods.” Financial Times, 26 December (subscription required).
The Financial Times wrote that “the next few years would see Maersk push the parts of its business not to do with the ocean, such as trucks, supply chain management and running warehouses,” according to Soren Skou, the chief …

The post Supply chain radar: AP...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/supply-chain-radar-ap-moller-maersks-land-of-hope-and-glory/

Market Insight: Has MIQ Logistics put the For Sale sign up?

Rumoured takeover target MIQ Logistics has attracted a lot of interest from the executives in my network in recent weeks.
Many have pointed out the US-based 3PL is a palatable bolt-on for asset-light logistics providers – not only for rumoured buyer Noatum Maritime, but also for larger would-be suitors.
The deal
The target – a YRC Worldwide spin-off from August 2010 – is private, so only few headline financial details are available, but it could well be …

The post Market Insight: Has MIQ...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/market-insight-has-miq-logistics-put-the-for-sale-sign-up/

Market Insight: executive roulette – time to pay the bill for all the window dressing

So, should we expect more joy or pain next year for executives of the major supply chain actors worldwide?
I say the latter, particularly for the worst-performer of 2018, Switzerland’s Kuehne + Nagel.
Topping the pre-Xmas podium – its stock is down a whopping 27% this year and was lately on my radar over reports of redundancies in Shindellegi, but rather than senior staff, it could be chief executive Detlef Trefzger on …

The post Market Insight: executive roulette – time to pay the bill for all...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/market-insight-executive-roulette-time-to-pay-the-bill-for-all-the-window-dressing/

Supply chain radar: What price will the Long Beach Terminal sale really fetch?

I have wondered how to value certain “strategic” infrastructure assets in the shipping world ever since we reported last year that COSCO appeased US security concerns over its acquisition of OOIL and its container arm OOCL by agreeing to concede ownership of the OOCL-operated Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT) to a US trust pending its sale to a third party.
That sale now is expected to complete by mid-2019, so it seems …

The post Supply chain radar: What price will the Long Beach Terminal...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/supply-chain-radar-running-numbers-long-beach-terminal-sale/

Supply chain radar: the Maersk family is down $5.6bn in 2018…

 … so, the necessary premise today is to put such a massive headline number in some kind of context: well, it’s almost twice as large as the market value of Switzerland’s Panalpina, which is currently the most talked about takeover target in the supply chain industry.
Moreover, what lies ahead for the Maersk family next year could be disheartening, as I pointed out in my analysis today, which focused on AP Møller-Maersk Group …

The post Supply chain radar: the Maersk family is down $5.6bn in...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/supply-chain-radar-maersk-family-5-6bn-2018/

Supply chain radar: container shipping mammoths walking a tightrope as moral hazard risk weighs

I have been asked this week whether I agree with shipping consultancy Drewry, which highlighted on Monday the strategic changes occurring in the ailing container shipping industry.
Quite frankly, I understand the narrative, but my take is rather different.
Luxury 
The opportunity to research, develop and implement a new corporate strategy would be a luxury now for any carriers with financial accounts in good order – but there is not a single one on …

The post Supply chain radar: container...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/supply-chain-radar-container-shipping-companies-walking-tightrope/

Market insight: Where will the steady gaze of Geodis become fixed next?

France’s Geodis traditionally attracts all sorts of M&A rumours, with its management team often coming up lately in private conversations that always end with “so then who is its next acquisition target?”
SNCF tree
The French logistics behemoth, part of state-owned national rail company SNCF, is adamant that chasing inorganic growth is the way forward, but the silver bullet could be a different shareholding structure before M&A opportunities are pursed.
A partial spin-off, …

The post Market...

https://theloadstar.co.uk/market-insight-will-steady-gaze-geodis-become-fixed-next/

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