ocean

Freight industry braces for drop in demand

Tender volume takes a dive

Tender volume, a measure of how often shippers request carriers to move loads, has trended down in recent days. (Chart: SONAR)

Up until the past few days, for all the turmoil in trade policy and the financial markets, SONAR had not been showing much change in freight demand, as measured in tender volume. That changed the past few days as the volume of tenders, or electronic requests made by shippers to move loads, declined significantly to no longer track levels of two...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-industry-braces-for-drop-in-demand

Fear of more tariffs prolongs retail pull-forward

Container ship bookings for US imports still strong, but falloff may hit soon

(Chart: SONAR)

One of the most watched SONAR datasets currently is the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index of U.S. imports (IOTI.USA). It represents a daily index of container bookings on vessels headed to the U.S. at the point of overseas origin, making it a leading indicator of import volume. The index provided an early look at import weakness in mid-2022 (light green line). 

Currently, IOTI shows continued strength in...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fear-of-more-tariffs-prolongs-retail-pull-forward

Is a freight market turn coming in May?

Rejection rates react to tariffs 

Tender rejection rates have remained above levels of the past two years and have also been more sensitive to events, suggesting the freight market is closer to a period of widespread tightness. The bounce in tender rejection rates in March was largely driven by flatbed in response to tariffs. (Chart: SONAR)

Clearly, we are in a period of unusually high economic and freight demand uncertainty, and the stock market pullback the past two weeks could put a damper on...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/is-a-freight-market-turn-coming-in-may

Federal Maritime Commission dropping DEI from strategic plan

Following President Donald Trump’s sweeping executive order reshaping development of the federal workforce, the Federal Maritime Commission has eliminated portions of its 2022-2026 strategic plan that focus on diversity, equity and inclusion.

The FMC, which regulates U.S. international ocean transportation, announced the changes in a brief statement Wednesday. 

“Pursuant to Executive Order, Ending Radical and Wasteful Government DEI Programs And Preferencing, and implementing guidance from the...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/federal-maritime-commission-dropping-dei-from-strategic-plan

Another year of stagnant intermodal pricing?

Intermodal rates mixed across lanes

The one-year change in the Transcon Index and the Local East Index are shown in red and white, respectively. (Chart: SONAR)

Late last year, SONAR rolled out intermodal contract rates by lane. These include fuel surcharges. In addition to lane-level rates for 67 lanes, SONAR includes a Transcon Index (IMCRPM.TRANSCON – red line above) and a Local East (IMCRPM.LOCALEAST – white line above) Index. Detail on the components of those indexes is available here.

A trend...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/another-year-of-stagnant-intermodal-pricing

Will ocean rates collapse?

Ocean demand being pulled forward

The main debate regarding the container ship market is whether several factors will converge to tank rates later this year. Most industry professionals are on board with the view that there was a significant pull forward of imports to avoid tariffs and potential port worker labor strife. According to Global Port Tracker, port activity increased 14.4% and 14.8% for December and all of 2024, respectively. Imports at the Port of Los Angeles have also been tracking...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/will-ocean-rates-collapse

Where ILA strike might go from here

Will the Biden administration renege? 

Last week in this newsletter, I discussed news that surprised me: The Biden administration reportedly had said it won’t invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to prevent or put an end to a strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). I’m not sure I believe that, at least not if the strike lasts for an extended period. Containership lines estimate that each day of a strike would lead to five to 10 days of congestion and delays, with a compounding...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/where-ila-strike-might-go-from-here

Schenker sale could create US logistics powerhouse

The sale of the logistics arm of Germany’s national railway has the potential to create a new supply chain powerhouse in the United States.

Final bids value DB Schenker, a unit of Deutsche Bahn, at as much as $17 billion, according to published reports.

The bids from a consortium led by U.S.-based CVC Capital Partners and Danish transport company DSV value the business at around 14 billion euros ($15.6 billion).

Schenker operates 1,850 locations worldwide with more than 725 warehouses and 72,000...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/schenker-sale-could-create-us-logistics-powerhouse

Ocean market – adding capacity doesn’t mean overcapacity

To subscribe to The Stockout, FreightWaves’ CPG and retail newsletter, click here.

Maritime-focused The Stockout episode

(Image: FWTV)

On Monday’s The Stockout show, I interviewed longtime ocean industry expert John D. McCown. McCown has multiple decades of experience attacking the ocean industry from different angles, including as CEO and co-founder of Trailer Bridge.

One overarching observation is that ocean carriers’ business models have improved in recent years. The carriers’ ability to...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ocean-market-adding-capacity-doesnt-mean-overcapacity

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