sonar analyst reports

Ocean carriers’ record rejections last-ditch effort to bolster spot rates

Back in May, we warned that a second-half rebound in U.S. containerized import volumes was highly unlikely as it was becoming increasingly clear that importers were facing a clear shift in consumer spending (from discretionary goods to more essential goods) and a nagging surplus of inventories that were carried over from last year. The reverse bullwhip effect was clearly going to crack any chances of a robust peak season. We also warned that this dismal outlook for future U.S. import demand may...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ocean-carriers-steadily-losing-pricing-power-in-trans-pacific

Ocean carriers steadily losing pricing power in trans-Pacific

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Last week, we warned that the “peak” of peak season had already arrived for U.S. containerized...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ocean-carriers-steadily-losing-pricing-power-in-trans-pacific

Annual demand dip paints incomplete picture of California markets

Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Volume Index – Los Angeles and Ontario, Outbound Tender Reject Index – Los Angeles SONAR: OTVI.LAX, OTVI.ONT, OTRI.LAX

Truckload tender volumes have dropped about 18% out of Southern California over the past year while tender rejection rates are currently exceeding the previous year’s levels. This seemingly contradictory data shows that even in a loose aggregate environment, capacity is not just about the number of trucks in the U.S.

The recent decline in...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/annual-demand-dip-paints-incomplete-picture-of-california-markets

The ‘peak’ of peak season is here

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For the past few months, we have been warning that U.S. containerized import volumes were not only...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/the-peak-of-peak-season-is-already-here

Critical level approaching for trans-Pacific spot rates

As we approach the end of the first half of 2023, trans-Pacific eastbound spot rates are nearing their year-to-date lows, marking a critical level for ocean carriers.

In conjunction with various factors such as the “bullwhip effect” impacting inventories at major U.S. importers, and a shift in consumer spending patterns, U.S. importers are expected to exercise extreme caution in bringing in new volumes during the second half. This cautious approach, coupled with a weakening global macroeconomic...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/critical-level-approaching-for-trans-pacific-spot-rates

2nd-half freight rebound increasingly unlikely

Across the physical economy, executives and analysts are projecting that the second half of 2023 will bring a rebound. That includes containerized U.S. import volumes, which sees its peak season in late summer to autumn. Some believe U.S. import demand has hit the bottom.

However, further downside risks have emerged for the U.S. economy. It’s wrecking the odds of a second-half rebound in import volumes.

Last June, SONAR’s ocean container bookings data revealed that U.S. import demand for...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/2nd-half-rebound-in-ocean-container-imports-increasingly-unlikely

FreightWaves integrates with GoodShip’s freight analytics and procurement platform

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Today, FreightWaves announced a SONAR data integration with GoodShip, a digital freight procurement...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freightwaves-integrates-with-goodships-freight-analytics-and-procurement-platform

Truckload market loosens again as tender rejections touch new low

By now, most industry observers and analysts agree that the U.S. truckload market has slowed significantly, part of a broader goods normalization and hangover in our COVID-recovery. Multiple spot rate benchmarks have been falling for months; capacity metrics have loosened. Accepted contract loads (CLAV.USA) peaked in October 2021 and just took a sharper turn downward. 

National outbound tender rejections (OTRI.USA), which measure the percentage of truckload shipments tendered by shippers that...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckload-market-loosens-again-as-tender-rejections-touch-new-low

Subseasonal trucking market still soft and loose

The U.S. truckload market is still soft, with accepted contract shipments running approximately 5.5% lower than the year-ago period, and loose, as only 5.5% of contract truckload tenders are being rejected by carriers.

When market conditions are favorable to carriers, they reject more contracted freight and deploy their assets in the spot market, striving to maximize yield or revenue per loaded mile. When market conditions are unfavorable, carriers tend to reject fewer shipments and take what...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/subseasonal-trucking-market-still-soft-and-loose

How will the European energy crisis affect freight markets?

Volatility in European power markets stemming from EU and U.K. sanctions against Russian energy — imposed in retaliation for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February — may soon cool off, but only after carving a slice out of the continent’s economy. 

On Monday, U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to cap household energy bills at the equivalent of $2,300 annually. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz unveiled a 65 billion euro relief package to ease the pain of energy prices that...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-will-the-european-energy-crisis-affect-freight-markets

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