The Stockout

Shippers opt for lower-cost, slower services

US intermodal volume outperformed truckload in Q1

(Chart: SONAR)

Loaded containerized intermodal volume (white line) had been trending in line with dry van truckload volume (red) and long-haul truckload volume (yellow), two segments that may be competitive with intermodal, until last year’s fourth quarter. Following the election, nationwide intermodal and truckload volume started departing significantly, likely a result of a pull-forward of imported goods to avoid tariffs. Inland movements of...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/shippers-opt-for-lower-cost-slower-services

Flatbed market anything but flat

Tariffs spike flatbed tender rejections

Flatbed tender rejection rates spiked just before North American tariffs took effect in early March, and they spiked again in recent days. (Chart: SONAR)

“What’s happening with flatbed rejection rates?” is the question of the hour from SONAR users. It’s easy to see why – rates shot up to the mid-30s in early March, ahead of North American tariffs (which were delayed for imports that adhered to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). Flated rejection...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/flatbed-market-anything-but-flat

Fear of more tariffs prolongs retail pull-forward

Container ship bookings for US imports still strong, but falloff may hit soon

(Chart: SONAR)

One of the most watched SONAR datasets currently is the Inbound Ocean TEUs Volume Index of U.S. imports (IOTI.USA). It represents a daily index of container bookings on vessels headed to the U.S. at the point of overseas origin, making it a leading indicator of import volume. The index provided an early look at import weakness in mid-2022 (light green line). 

Currently, IOTI shows continued strength in...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/fear-of-more-tariffs-prolongs-retail-pull-forward

Is a freight market turn coming in May?

Rejection rates react to tariffs 

Tender rejection rates have remained above levels of the past two years and have also been more sensitive to events, suggesting the freight market is closer to a period of widespread tightness. The bounce in tender rejection rates in March was largely driven by flatbed in response to tariffs. (Chart: SONAR)

Clearly, we are in a period of unusually high economic and freight demand uncertainty, and the stock market pullback the past two weeks could put a damper on...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/is-a-freight-market-turn-coming-in-may

Tariffs in 7 SONAR charts

Tariffs are making Canadian highway capacity scarcer

An index of outbound Canadian tenders, or shippers’ requests to move loads, is shown in white on the right axis. The percent of those tenders that are rejected by carriers is shown in red, on the left axis. (Chart: SONAR)

A week ago, it wasn’t clear whether the tariffs on Canada and Mexico would actually be implemented. But, as the first business days of March approached and it became clearer that the North American tariffs were all systems go,...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tariffs-in-7-sonar-charts

Are low February freight volumes more than seasonality?

Freight volume has been weak this month

Tender volume, which counts how often shippers request that carriers pick up loads, has shown weakness this month. (Chart: SONAR)

The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI – above) is the SONAR chart that stands out the most to me this week. It measures the volume of requests from shippers to move loads. It moved 3.8% lower in the past two weeks and is 6.9% below the year-ago level. That 3.8% two-week decline breaks down to a 3.1% decline for the dry van...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/are-low-february-freight-volumes-more-than-seasonality

Another year of stagnant intermodal pricing?

Intermodal rates mixed across lanes

The one-year change in the Transcon Index and the Local East Index are shown in red and white, respectively. (Chart: SONAR)

Late last year, SONAR rolled out intermodal contract rates by lane. These include fuel surcharges. In addition to lane-level rates for 67 lanes, SONAR includes a Transcon Index (IMCRPM.TRANSCON – red line above) and a Local East (IMCRPM.LOCALEAST – white line above) Index. Detail on the components of those indexes is available here.

A trend...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/another-year-of-stagnant-intermodal-pricing

Will ocean rates collapse?

Ocean demand being pulled forward

The main debate regarding the container ship market is whether several factors will converge to tank rates later this year. Most industry professionals are on board with the view that there was a significant pull forward of imports to avoid tariffs and potential port worker labor strife. According to Global Port Tracker, port activity increased 14.4% and 14.8% for December and all of 2024, respectively. Imports at the Port of Los Angeles have also been tracking...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/will-ocean-rates-collapse

FreightWaves fulfills duty to cover tariffs

#tariffs

If this week demonstrated anything, it’s how quickly the tariff situation can change, with the 30-day delay on Canada and Mexico tariffs announced at the eleventh hour. For the latest, I recommend bookmarking the FreightWaves page with articles tagged “Tariff” – link here. In addition to the latest news, FreightWaves articles cover tariffs from the perspective of various carrier segments and shipper verticals, including:

In...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freightwaves-fulfills-duty-to-cover-tariffs

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