Weekly Outlook

• MEG-China VLCC rates soared by 30% in a week, fueled by oil price volatility and trade concerns.
• The US paused tariffs on Canadian and Mexican oil, stabilizing short-term crude flows but leaving Q2 2025 uncertain.
• Aframax demand in Canada remains strong, but potential tariffs could drive a shift to Suezmax tankers for longer-haul routes.

The crude oil freight market remains turbulent, with VLCC rates surging on the MEG-China route. Market sentiment is stabilizing despite tonne-day demand...

https://mfame.guru/energy-tariffs-tankers-a-market-in-flux/

• U.S.-Europe coal shipments declined by 4.5% in 2024, with a weak start in 2025, reflecting reduced European demand and regulatory constraints.
• Freight rates across vessel classes continued to fall, with Capesize rates down 23% YoY and Panamax rates dropping 25% YoY.
• Port congestion in China saw a sharp decline, especially for Capesize vessels, signaling reduced demand and lower dry bulk activity.

Coal exports from the U.S. to Europe saw a 4.5% YoY decline, dropping from 26.4M tonnes in 2023 to...

The futures curve for the dry bulk market has recently risen due to increased optimism about a strong post-Chinese New Year recovery. However, while this optimism exists, there is currently limited concrete evidence to support such a significant rebound, reports Breakwave Advisors. 

Despite the significant spread between spot rates and futures, the absolute spot rate levels remain relatively modest. This suggests the potential for a substantial increase in spot rates shortly,...

https://mfame.guru/dry-bulk-futures-rise-amidst-spot-rate-weakness/

The market for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) weakened this week, with rates declining on several key routes. Notably, rates on the TC1 route (75,000 MT Middle East Gulf to Japan) fell significantly, while the TC20 route (90,000 MT Middle East Gulf to UK-Continent) also saw a substantial drop. However, there was some positive momentum on the TC15 route (West of Suez), with rates experiencing a slight increase, reports Baltic Exchange. 

The TC17 35kt MED/East Africa route saw a more subdued...

https://mfame.guru/vlcc-rates-rebound-while-mr-market-faces-downturn/

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) dropped 2% this week, settling at $3,364 per 40ft container as of 30 January 2025. While significantly below the pandemic peak of $10,377 in September 2021, current rates remain 137% higher than the pre-pandemic average of $1,420 in 2019.

• Current WCI Rate: $3,364 per 40ft container.
• Change: 2% decrease this week.
• Annual Comparison: 137% higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average.
• Year-to-Date (YTD) Average: $3,711 per 40ft container, exceeding...

https://mfame.guru/drewrys-world-container-index-falls-2-to-3364-per-40ft-container/

The freight market has weakened as we approach the end of January and the onset of the Chinese New Year. An oversupply of vessels and declining demand for tonne-day growth are major factors contributing to this downturn. The Capesize segment, in particular, has seen a significant drop in tonne-day growth for shipments from Brazil to China, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) declining by nearly 50% compared to the same period last year, reports Breakwave Advisors. 

Capesize-l...

https://mfame.guru/capesize-rates-plummet-dry-bulk-market-under-pressure/

• Ongoing geopolitical risks like the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are impacting energy markets.
• New sanctions could drive up oil prices, though Trump’s stance on energy remains uncertain.
• Trump aims to boost U.S. oil production, reduce renewable energy mandates, and refill the SPR.
• Potential tariffs on energy imports from Mexico, Canada, and the EU could disrupt trade.
• The shipping market is experiencing mixed trends due to geopolitical risks, holiday disruptions,...

https://mfame.guru/navigating-geopolitical-risks-in-global-energy-and-shipping/

• East-West Trade Lanes See Significant Sailing Cancellations.
• Freight Rates Continue Decline Amid Market Challenges.
• Israel-Hamas Ceasefire May Reopen Red Sea Routes, But Risks Remain.

The Cancelled Sailings Tracker offers a week-by-week detail of blank sailings announced by each alliance as compared to total scheduled sailings. Between weeks 5 and 9, that is, between 27 January to 2 March, a total of 113 sailings have been cancelled in major East-West trade lanes, for a cancellation rate of...

https://mfame.guru/cancelled-sailings-tracker-weekly-overview-and-key-insights/