The Stockout

Freight markets improve slower than carriers would like

Trucking market still on track to tighten, but progress only gradual

While most evidence still suggests that freight markets are on a path toward tightening, comments by public carriers so far this earnings season highlight the lack of an immediate inflection. As JP Hampstead described in his article earlier this week, “progress in tightening capacity and rising rates is halting and gradual.” Knight-Swift, the largest U.S. truckload carrier, reported a 0.7% decline in truckload revenue per...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-markets-improve-slower-than-carriers-would-like

Seasonal norms blunt recent improvements in freight markets

Slipping truckload demand obfuscates capacity exits

Carriers have been rejecting more tenders the past few months, but the change would have been much greater if not for lackluster volume. (Chart: SONAR)

SONAR’s primary measure of volume, the national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures total shipper requests to carriers, is down 2%, year over year. Weather and the timing of holidays make clean comparisons difficult this early in the year, but volume softness appears to be...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/seasonal-norms-blunt-recent-improvements-in-freight-markets

Numerous issues on shippers’ radar to start year

ILA and USMX come to the table

While it’s still unclear what will happen in the middle of this month, a report from CNBC noted that the two sides in the East and Gulf Coast port labor dispute are meeting, which is a step in the right direction. That is a contrast to the days leading up to the strike deadline this past fall, when it appeared to the United States Maritime Alliance (and most others) that the International Longshoremen’s Association had already decided to strike. That said, the two...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/numerous-issues-on-shippers-radar-to-start-year

Mexican decree ends ‘border-skipping’ strategy

Mexican president puts end to border-skipping

Ocean demand from China to Mexico has grown sharply in recent years, which many attribute to border-skipping. (Chart: SONAR)

The coming months are likely to be marked by sweeping changes to trade policies that shippers, particularly apparel and e-commerce companies, will have to adapt to. Those changes are starting to take place even before President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in for his second administration. On Dec. 19, Mexican President Claudia...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mexican-decree-ends-border-skipping-strategy

Freight market shows additional signs of recovery

Tender rejection rate rises as holidays approach

The tender rejection rate has risen steadily since early October despite tender volume declining. That implies that capacity is leaving the market, which is leading to a tighter freight market. (Chart: SONAR)

Both truckload spot rates and tender rejection rates are indicating that the freight market is tightening. The tender rejection rate has risen to its highest level since the first half of 2022 with a bounce that appears to be driven by more...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-market-shows-additional-signs-of-recovery

How much will freight rates rise next year?

State of Freight Webinar discusses shift in the freight market

Both tender rejection rates (white line) and spot rates (red line) have risen sharply the past two months, which typically leads to a rise in contract rates. (Chart: SONAR)

On the December State of Freight webinar on Tuesday, FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller and SONAR Director of Freight Market Intelligence Zach Strickland discussed the outlook for the 2025 freight market. In the prior month’s webinar, they declared the freight recession...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-much-will-freight-rates-rise-next-year

Reefer market shows signs of tightening

Reefer tender rejection rates rise from the West Coast

(Chart: SONAR)

Earlier this week, a few of my SONAR colleagues and I spoke with a major freight broker that is heavily involved with reefer. He sees signs of the reefer market tightening in a way that feels different from any point in the past two years. The impact is most pronounced on the West Coast, coinciding with the seasonal period when certain crops are moved. 

In the past two years, shippers frequently told the reefer-heavy broker that...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/reefer-market-shows-signs-of-tightening

Black Friday is not canceled, but shoppers want even better deals

It’s that time of year – retail news abounds on FreightWaves and elsewhere

I thought Target’s management team put it well last week as it now describes consumers as “resourceful,” meaning they are still shopping but are looking for value and waiting for deals, rather than “resilient,” the term it used previously. Along similar lines, the National Retail Federation expects November-December holiday sales to rise moderately – it forecasts a 2.5%-3.5% year-over-year increase, suggesting it doesn’t...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/black-friday-is-not-canceled-but-shoppers-want-even-better-deals

SONAR expands LTL and intermodal data offering

New to SONAR – LTL pricing by freight class

Long-haul LTL shipments typically have higher rates for Classes 70-85 freight (blue line) than for long-haul LTL shipments for Classes 50-65 freight (red line). (Chart: SONAR) 

LTL pricing is far more complex than that of other freight modes and has more to do with the density of the freight being shipped than the distance. According to Zach Strickland, SONAR’s head of freight market intelligence, “revenue per hundredweight [published by public carriers...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/sonar-expands-ltl-and-intermodal-data-offering

Nikola exec says battery versus hydrogen not an either/or

Nikola joins The Stockout show

On Monday’s The Stockout show, Grace Sharkey and I interviewed Tom Schmitt, chief commercial officer of Nikola Corp. Nikola is the leading company that offers alternatively fueled Class 8 trucks. It offers both battery-electric and hydrogen-electric options. Schmitt does not believe that one of those technologies will win out over the other. Instead, as shippers and fleet owners look to reduce their fossil fuel usage and lower their carbon footprints, he expects...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/nikola-exec-says-battery-versus-hydrogen-not-an-either-or

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