The Stockout

Will ocean rates collapse?

Ocean demand being pulled forward

The main debate regarding the container ship market is whether several factors will converge to tank rates later this year. Most industry professionals are on board with the view that there was a significant pull forward of imports to avoid tariffs and potential port worker labor strife. According to Global Port Tracker, port activity increased 14.4% and 14.8% for December and all of 2024, respectively. Imports at the Port of Los Angeles have also been tracking...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/will-ocean-rates-collapse

FreightWaves fulfills duty to cover tariffs

#tariffs

If this week demonstrated anything, it’s how quickly the tariff situation can change, with the 30-day delay on Canada and Mexico tariffs announced at the eleventh hour. For the latest, I recommend bookmarking the FreightWaves page with articles tagged “Tariff” – link here. In addition to the latest news, FreightWaves articles cover tariffs from the perspective of various carrier segments and shipper verticals, including:

In...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freightwaves-fulfills-duty-to-cover-tariffs

Freight markets improve slower than carriers would like

Trucking market still on track to tighten, but progress only gradual

While most evidence still suggests that freight markets are on a path toward tightening, comments by public carriers so far this earnings season highlight the lack of an immediate inflection. As JP Hampstead described in his article earlier this week, “progress in tightening capacity and rising rates is halting and gradual.” Knight-Swift, the largest U.S. truckload carrier, reported a 0.7% decline in truckload revenue per...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-markets-improve-slower-than-carriers-would-like

Seasonal norms blunt recent improvements in freight markets

Slipping truckload demand obfuscates capacity exits

Carriers have been rejecting more tenders the past few months, but the change would have been much greater if not for lackluster volume. (Chart: SONAR)

SONAR’s primary measure of volume, the national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures total shipper requests to carriers, is down 2%, year over year. Weather and the timing of holidays make clean comparisons difficult this early in the year, but volume softness appears to be...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/seasonal-norms-blunt-recent-improvements-in-freight-markets

Numerous issues on shippers’ radar to start year

ILA and USMX come to the table

While it’s still unclear what will happen in the middle of this month, a report from CNBC noted that the two sides in the East and Gulf Coast port labor dispute are meeting, which is a step in the right direction. That is a contrast to the days leading up to the strike deadline this past fall, when it appeared to the United States Maritime Alliance (and most others) that the International Longshoremen’s Association had already decided to strike. That said, the two...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/numerous-issues-on-shippers-radar-to-start-year

Mexican decree ends ‘border-skipping’ strategy

Mexican president puts end to border-skipping

Ocean demand from China to Mexico has grown sharply in recent years, which many attribute to border-skipping. (Chart: SONAR)

The coming months are likely to be marked by sweeping changes to trade policies that shippers, particularly apparel and e-commerce companies, will have to adapt to. Those changes are starting to take place even before President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in for his second administration. On Dec. 19, Mexican President Claudia...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mexican-decree-ends-border-skipping-strategy

Freight market shows additional signs of recovery

Tender rejection rate rises as holidays approach

The tender rejection rate has risen steadily since early October despite tender volume declining. That implies that capacity is leaving the market, which is leading to a tighter freight market. (Chart: SONAR)

Both truckload spot rates and tender rejection rates are indicating that the freight market is tightening. The tender rejection rate has risen to its highest level since the first half of 2022 with a bounce that appears to be driven by more...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/freight-market-shows-additional-signs-of-recovery

How much will freight rates rise next year?

State of Freight Webinar discusses shift in the freight market

Both tender rejection rates (white line) and spot rates (red line) have risen sharply the past two months, which typically leads to a rise in contract rates. (Chart: SONAR)

On the December State of Freight webinar on Tuesday, FreightWaves CEO Craig Fuller and SONAR Director of Freight Market Intelligence Zach Strickland discussed the outlook for the 2025 freight market. In the prior month’s webinar, they declared the freight recession...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/how-much-will-freight-rates-rise-next-year

Reefer market shows signs of tightening

Reefer tender rejection rates rise from the West Coast

(Chart: SONAR)

Earlier this week, a few of my SONAR colleagues and I spoke with a major freight broker that is heavily involved with reefer. He sees signs of the reefer market tightening in a way that feels different from any point in the past two years. The impact is most pronounced on the West Coast, coinciding with the seasonal period when certain crops are moved. 

In the past two years, shippers frequently told the reefer-heavy broker that...

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/reefer-market-shows-signs-of-tightening

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