Back in January 2022, when the world was in the throes of a supply chain crisis, economists at the New York Federal Reserve unveiled a new barometer to measure the inflation fallout, called the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI).
The GSCPI, designed to “capture supply chain disruptions using a range of indicators,” measures standard deviations from the historical mean. It peaked at 4.31 standard deviations in December 2021. In trading parlance, that’s a four-sigma or once-in-a-century...
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